主题：Using a CGE model to analyse policy issues: illegal immigration in the U.S.
主讲人：Peter B. Dixon教授，Victoria University, Australia
Professor Peter B. Dixon had his PhD awarded by Harvard University in 1972 and his thesis was subsequently published in the Contributions to Economic Analysis series of North Holland. After working at the International Monetary Fund and the Reserve Bank of Australia, Dixon joined the IMPACT Project in 1975 under the direction of Professor A.A. Powell. With Powell, he was the joint recipient of the 1983 Research Medal of the Royal Society of Victoria given in recognition of the outstanding contribution of the IMPACT Project to social science research in Australia over the preceding 5 years.
He was elected a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia in 1982; awarded the Distinguished Fellowship of the Economic Society of Australia in 2003; appointed Sir John Monash Distinguished Professor by Monash University in 2006; and elected to the Hall of Fame in the Global Trade Analysis Project in 2015. In the Queen’s Birthday Honours of 2014 he was appointed Officer in the Order of Australia (AO).
Dixon is known internationally for his work in computable general equilibrium modelling. Together with colleagues at the IMPACT Project and the Centre of Policy Studies, he created the ORANI model and its dynamic successor, MONASH. These models have been prominent in the Australian economic debate for 35 years and have been used as templates for the development of other models throughout the world. He is the principal author of the ORANI and MONASH books published in the North Holland Contributions series in 1982 and 2002.
In recent years he has led the development of the USAGE model of the U.S. which is being used by the U. S. International Trade Commission and the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Transportation and Homeland Security. Dixon's publication list contains about 225 articles and 8 books, including three North Holland Contributions monographs.
In 2008 there were 8.3 million unauthorized foreign workers in the U.S employed mainly in low-skilled occupations. On baseline trends this will reach 12.4 million in 2019. The U.S. Departments of Homeland Security and Commerce commissioned us to conduct simulations with our U.S. model, USAGE, on the effects of policies to reduce unauthorized employment in 2019 by 3.6 million, to 8.8 million.
We looked at the effects of restricting supply via tighter border security and the effects of restricting demand via penalties on employers. Our simulations showed that these policies would inflict significant long-run costs on legal residents of the U.S. The most important of these was what we called the Occupation-mix effect. With less low-skilled migrants, the U.S. economy would be smaller with fewer jobs in all occupations.
New legal entrants to the workforce would find reduced employment opportunities in skilled occupations (smaller economy) and increased opportunities in low-skilled occupations (vacancies created by reduction in low-skilled migrants). In this way the occupational-mix of legal employment would be slanted towards low-skilled, low-paid jobs.